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Captain Pick Analyzer

Gameweek 31

How the Captain Score is calculated (click to expand)
Stage 1 - Baseline (48%)
Form (32%) + Fixture (27%) + PPG (16%) + Home (9%) + Availability (4%) + Minutes Reliability (12%)
Stage 2 - Explosiveness (30%)
xGI per 90 (40%) + Role ICT Score (30%) + xGI Ceiling Blend (30%: 60% recent level + 40% trend delta), multiplied by Set Piece boost (up to 1.25x)
Stage 3 - Control & Bonus (12%)
Clean Sheet prediction (xGC), Bonus/BPS history, DreamTeam, DEFCON - position-tiered weights
Volatility Penalty (max -5pts)
Cards per 90 over last 5 GWs - penalizes booking-prone players
Value Regression (±5pts)
value_form / value_season ratio detects overperformance (mild penalty) or underperformance (mild boost)
#1 B.Fernandes PEN SP+25%
MID | MUN | £10.2m | 44.7%
83.6
Captain Score
GW31 Fixture: BOU(A) AWAY
Last 5: 35pts (1G 4A) xGI/90: 0.69 xGC/90: 1.25 Mins: 450/450 (100%) Bonus: 33 BPS: 756 DreamTeam: 6 DEFCON/90: 8.94 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW262 GW272 GW2813 GW298 GW3010
Base 61.2 Expl 137.2 Ctrl 84 Vol -2 Reg +5
#2 João Pedro
FWD | CHE | £7.8m | 51.4%
74.8
Captain Score
GW31 Fixture: EVE(A) AWAY
Last 5: 40pts (5G 2A) xGI/90: 0.61 xGC/90: 1.21 Mins: 433/450 (96.2%) Bonus: 28 BPS: 659 DreamTeam: 5 DEFCON/90: 5.04 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW2610 GW277 GW282 GW2919 GW302
Base 61.2 Expl 104.3 Ctrl 93.1 Vol -2.1 Reg +5
#3 Gordon PEN SP+15%
MID | NEW | £7.3m | 7.9%
73.6
Captain Score
GW31 Fixture: SUN(H) HOME
Last 5: 27pts (2G 1A) xGI/90: 0.63 xGC/90: 1.2 Mins: 423/450 (94%) Bonus: 7 BPS: 319 DreamTeam: 2 DEFCON/90: 4.55 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW265 GW272 GW282 GW297 GW3011
Base 66.3 Expl 99.6 Ctrl 57.1 Vol -0 Reg +5
Full Rankings (5 viable captain picks)
4 Wilson SP+10% 72.1
MID | FUL | £6.0m BUR(H) HOME
Last 5 GW25pts (1G 2A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.37 | 1.3
Minutes Reliability322/450 (71.6%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam19 | 543 | 3
DEFCON/906
Regression+5
Base 72.1 Expl 75.3 Ctrl 82.7 Vol -0
5 Thiago SP+5% 70.8
FWD | BRE | £7.3m LEE(A) AWAY
Last 5 GW18pts (2G 0A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.67 | 1.42
Minutes Reliability450/450 (100%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam19 | 607 | 5
DEFCON/905.55
Regression+5
Base 49.1 Expl 110.7 Ctrl 91.7 Vol -2