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Captain Pick Analyzer

Gameweek 6

How the Captain Score is calculated (click to expand)
Stage 1 - Baseline (48%)
Form (32%) + Fixture (27%) + PPG (16%) + Home (9%) + Availability (4%) + Minutes Reliability (12%)
Stage 2 - Explosiveness (30%)
xGI per 90 (40%) + Role ICT Score (30%) + xGI Ceiling Blend (30%: 60% recent level + 40% trend delta), multiplied by Set Piece boost (up to 1.25x)
Stage 3 - Control & Bonus (12%)
Clean Sheet prediction (xGC), Bonus/BPS history, DreamTeam, DEFCON - position-tiered weights
Volatility Penalty (max -5pts)
Cards per 90 over last 5 GWs - penalizes booking-prone players
Value Regression (±5pts)
value_form / value_season ratio detects overperformance (mild penalty) or underperformance (mild boost)
Full Rankings (9 viable captain picks)
#1 B.Fernandes PEN SP+25%
MID | MUN | £11.9m | 38.5% owned
86
Captain Score
GW6 Fixture: TOT(H) HOME
Last 5: 31pts (3G 1A) xGI/90: 0.77 xGC/90: 1.36 Mins: 450/450 (100%) Bonus: 3 BPS: 148 DreamTeam: 1 DEFCON/90: 5.8 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW12 GW223 GW32 GW42 GW52
Base 74.2 Expl 125.4 Ctrl 64.8 Vol -0 Reg +5
#2 Saka PEN SP+20%
MID | ARS | £9.5m | 13.7% owned
82.1
Captain Score
GW6 Fixture: LEE(H) HOME
Last 5: 32pts (3G 0A) xGI/90: 0.91 xGC/90: 0.77 Mins: 416/450 (92.4%) Bonus: 4 BPS: 137 DreamTeam: 0 DEFCON/90: 6.71 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW19 GW211 GW32 GW48 GW52
Base 67.5 Expl 121 Ctrl 70 Vol -0 Reg +5
#3 Haaland PEN SP+15%
FWD | MCI | £15.6m | 73.8% owned
79.9
Captain Score
GW6 Fixture: LIV(A) AWAY
Last 5: 39pts (5G 0A) xGI/90: 0.99 xGC/90: 1.45 Mins: 450/450 (100%) Bonus: 9 BPS: 167 DreamTeam: 2 DEFCON/90: 4 Reg +5
Minutes (Last 5 GW)
Form (Last 5 GW)
GW12 GW213 GW39 GW49 GW56
Base 59.2 Expl 118.8 Ctrl 90.4 Vol -0 Reg +5
4 Groß PEN SP+25% 76.1
MID | BHA | £5.8m | 28.8% owned SUN(A) AWAY
Last 5 GW47pts (3G 4A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.52 | 1.73
Minutes Reliability450/450 (100%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam9 | 166 | 3
DEFCON/905.2
Regression+5
Base 70.6 Expl 105.1 Ctrl 81.1 Vol -4
5 Isak Doubtful (75%) SP+5% 73.2
FWD | LIV | £9.1m | 22.4% owned MCI(H) HOME
Last 5 GW33pts (4G 0A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.79 | 1.27
Minutes Reliability413/450 (91.8%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam8 | 133 | 1
DEFCON/901.53
Regression+5
Base 60.6 Expl 101.8 Ctrl 89.6 Vol -2.2
6 Mbeumo SP+10% 72.7
MID | MUN | £7.9m | 20.6% owned TOT(H) HOME
Last 5 GW25pts (2G 1A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.77 | 1.36
Minutes Reliability450/450 (100%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam3 | 110 | 0
DEFCON/905.2
Regression+5
Base 68.6 Expl 104.3 Ctrl 45.9 Vol -2
7 Gibbs-White PEN SP+20% 71.4
MID | NFO | £8.0m | 15.7% owned CRY(A) AWAY
Last 5 GW28pts (1G 2A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.59 | 0.95
Minutes Reliability450/450 (100%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam6 | 116 | 1
DEFCON/904.2
Regression+5
Base 55.6 Expl 101.4 Ctrl 77 Vol -0
8 João Pedro Doubtful (75%) 70.4
FWD | CHE | £7.7m | 65.2% owned BOU(H) HOME
Last 5 GW33pts (3G 3A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.59 | 1.54
Minutes Reliability360/450 (80%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam7 | 141 | 2
DEFCON/902.25
Regression+5
Base 68.7 Expl 81.9 Ctrl 85.8 Vol -2.5
9 Ødegaard 70.3
MID | ARS | £6.8m | 19.8% owned LEE(H) HOME
Last 5 GW29pts (2G 0A)
xGI/90 | xGC/900.58 | 0.77
Minutes Reliability377/450 (83.8%)
Bonus | BPS | DreamTeam6 | 137 | 1
DEFCON/905.49
Regression+5
Base 63.6 Expl 79.9 Ctrl 89.6 Vol -0